The Future of Remain vs Leave

Let's try to figure out when living remainers outnumber living brexiteers. There isn't good data on lots of things required to do a good job of estimating this. And I have other stuff to do. But let's try and throw something quick together as I couldn't find anything else quantitative on this question.

Data

Support

Source Note doesn't break down working age adults... that will probably lead to overestimate in calculations.

Turnout

Source

Demographics

(Wikipedia)

Simplify that to... (ignoring loads of issues around eligibility etc), in millions:

Result

(millions of votes)

Mortality

(One in... adapted, crudely adjusted/eyeballed from http://www.bandolier.org.uk/booth/Risk/dyingage.html)

Note. Hmmm.... this bit is grim. Also my intuitions about UK demographics are way off.

Calculation

Idea: Let's build a simple model to get vote and iterate by year, adjusting to match actual result. Probably going to have to write some code now.

Code on Github, please run yourself, check, improve, ...

So by 2030, under a model which I would expect massively relatively favours Brexit voters' longevity (for example the mortality ignores age changes which are extremely relevant at the high end and this is strongest Brexit group) there will be a majority of Remain. And well before that things are extremely close.

So much for the people have spoken (which based on a narrow 52-48 result was always absurd).